The U.S. leading index, a key barometer of economic conditions, declined for the fourth consecutive month in September, The Conference Board reported this week.

The leading index now stands at 115.6 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in September and decreased 0.3 percent in August. During the six-month span through September, the leading index decreased 0.2 percent, with three out of ten components advancing.

The Conference Board said the weakness in the last four months has become more widespread. However, these declines in the leading index have not been large enough nor have they persisted long enough to signal an end to the current economic expansion.

The coincident index, an index of current economic activity, increased again in September and its growth continues to be widespread. Real GDP growth slowed to a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, but appears to have picked up again in the third quarter.

While the leading index is not yet signaling a downturn, the growth rate of the leading index has slowed below its long-term trend growth rate, which is consistent with real GDP continuing to grow in the near term, but more slowly than its long-term trend rate.

Four of the 10 leading indicators that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors were real money supply, stock prices, manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods and building permits. The negative contributors were vendor performance, interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, average weekly manufacturing hours and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials.

The index of consumer expectations held steady in September.

***

What’s your opinion? Send your Letter to the Editor to opinion@inman.com.

Show Comments Hide Comments

Comments

Sign up for Inman’s Morning Headlines
What you need to know to start your day with all the latest industry developments
By submitting your email address, you agree to receive marketing emails from Inman.
Success!
Thank you for subscribing to Morning Headlines.
Back to top
Black Friday starts now! We've got great deals on Inman Connect New York in-person and virtual tickets. Register now×
Cyber Week Sale: Get 1 year of Inman Select for $75.SUBSCRIBE×
Log in
If you created your account with Google or Facebook
Don't have an account?
Forgot your password?
No Problem

Simply enter the email address you used to create your account and click "Reset Password". You will receive additional instructions via email.

Forgot your username? If so please contact customer support at (510) 658-9252

Password Reset Confirmation

Password Reset Instructions have been sent to

Subscribe to The Weekender
Get the week's leading headlines delivered straight to your inbox.
Top headlines from around the real estate industry. Breaking news as it happens.
15 stories covering tech, special reports, video and opinion.
Unique features from hacker profiles to portal watch and video interviews.
Unique features from hacker profiles to portal watch and video interviews.
It looks like you’re already a Select Member!
To subscribe to exclusive newsletters, visit your email preferences in the account settings.
Up-to-the-minute news and interviews in your inbox, ticket discounts for Inman events and more
1-Step CheckoutPay with a credit card
By continuing, you agree to Inman’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

You will be charged . Your subscription will automatically renew for on . For more details on our payment terms and how to cancel, click here.

Interested in a group subscription?
Finish setting up your subscription