Industry News

Forecast: Real estate will be economic drag in ’07

UBS report expects Fed to cut funds rate back to 4%

A correction in the U.S. real estate market "has materialized and is now beginning to seriously impact the overall economy," according to a report released today by UBS, a global financial firm. The "UBS Global Outlook" report also states, "We do not expect the U.S. economy to pick up again until the fourth quarter of 2007, when the combined effect of interest-rate cuts and a gradual turnaround in the construction cycle should take hold." Annualized quarterly growth in residential investment in the third quarter dropped to -- 17.4 percent, according to the report, and the forecast calls for U.S. growth of 2 percent for the next few quarters and for the 2007 year. "(Gross domestic product growth will probably remain below its long-term trend in 2008 as well, but this does not mean that we need fear a recession in the coming quarters," the report states. "For that to happen, the U.S. Federal Reserve would have to adopt a much more aggressive stance than the one that caught some market ...

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