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by CareyBot

Mortgage rates have enjoyed a modest rally, the 10-year T-note's decline from 4.88 percent to 4.77 percent leading mortgages from 6.375 percent to 6.25 percent. Do not expect more improvement, not with an economy as strong as this, and zero chance of a rate cut from the Fed. On the other hand, don't expect the blow-up in rates that would normally follow dashed bond-market hopes for a recession, long yields soaring above the Fed's 5.25 percent cost of money. This unnaturally "inverted yield curve" is just one of several effects of the recycling of the American trade deficit, now in the previously inconceivable range of $750 billion per year, some 6 percent of GDP. For exporters to us to continue to export, they must keep the dollar strong enough to buy their junk (and oil), and the only...