Upward pressure continues on long-term rates: the 10-year T-note at 4.65 percent has jumped the March range, and mortgages are at risk to lose the 6.25 percent level. The economy has slowed to growth near 2 percent, but shows no sign of serious impact from the housing recession. This morning, personal income and spending each rose by .6 percent in February. Construction spending, expected to drop, instead rose .3 percent. Weekly applications for mortgages are holding in a steady band. If a mortgage credit crunch were beginning to bite, we would see a decline by now. Refinance apps are running stronger than would be explained by interest-rate-advantage models, indicating that large numbers of ARM borrowers are successfully escaping their upward resets. The corporate sector is showing some s...
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