Rates are rising again this morning -- possibly an overreaction in thin holiday markets to strong job-market news, but rising. The 10-year T-note is 4.75 percent versus 4.66 percent yesterday and 4.5 percent four weeks ago; that upward drive has taken mortgages from just above 6 percent to 6.25 percent yesterday and almost 6.375 percent today. March payrolls increased by 180,000, about half-again the forecast, and unemployment fell to 4.4 percent, which has crushed any thought of near-term Fed easing. The last few weeks look the same on a rate chart as a half-dozen other intervals since the Fed paused at 5.25 percent last summer, but I think the game is now changing. Despite today's job news, the economy really is weakening. In the prior intervals, an outbreak of hopeful expectation for re...
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