The economy will continue to grow in 2007 at a moderate pace, according to the leading indicators we track. Our eight leading indicators show a mix of signs: Above-average growth will occur: 1) ECRI's leading economic indicator index, and 2) corporate profits Average growth will occur: 1) Manpower's Net Employment Outlook, 2) 12-month stock market returns, and 3) Institute of Supply Manager's index (indicator of purchasing activity by companies) Below-average growth will occur: 1) Conference Board's leading economic indicator index, 2) yield curve, and 3) crude oil prices While some have mentioned the possibility of a recession, it isn't generally showing up in the leading indicators. Continued economic growth will be the key to a housing recovery. Our grading system of the economy and the housing market is a "bell curve" model, with statistics at an all-time high receiving an "A," statistics near the long-term average receiving a "C," and the worst times ever receiving an "...
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