The 10-year T-note improved this week, back down from the spooky-healthy job-market surprise two weeks ago, mortgages about 6.25 percent. However, the 10-year is now smack in the middle of a three-week trading range with no reason to move until the economy declares itself in new data. We'll get housing news next week, and then nothing until the first week of May. I think the data suggests a steadily weakening economy, but that general perception is built into today's rates. New claims for unemployment insurance are suspiciously high; March retail sales were stronger than expected, up .7 percent, but robbing from April; and industrial production rose, but going nowhere. New housing starts and permits were up a hair, but this is a false signal: the only way for builders to unload excess land...
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