Mortgage rates are about the same, just under 6.5 percent, but the ultra-indicator, the 10-year T-note yield, has gradually fallen from 4.7 percent last week to 4.6 percent. That fall is the tell-tale in a vertical tug of war. Pulling up are those convinced that the Fed's easing is either inflationary or unnecessary or both; pulling down are those concerned that the housing/credit crunch combination will result in recession. I am with camp number two, my judgment clouded by desire for a half-percent drop in long-term rates and a little refinance party. Wouldn't hurt home sales, either. New economic reports don't help much because we have so little real-time data on the still-developing effects of the crunch. August closings of existing homes dumped 4.3 percent, but those were pre...
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