Industry News

UCLA economist predicts U.S. will avoid the ‘R’ word

Forecast report notes disconnect in housing, jobs

Don't miss the real estate event of the summer
Join 4,000 real estate pros at Connect SF, Aug 7‑11, 2017

While the "R" word -- recession -- has been tossed about frequently in economic discussions, a quarterly economic forecast maintains that the word need not be a part of the dialog, at least in the short term. "Now there are countless prognosticators throwing around recession. That may be the best indicator that a recession is not coming soon," stated Ed Leamer, director of the University of California, Los Angeles, Anderson Forecast. "Better remember a recession is not measured by the frequency with which the newspapers use the 'R' word. To have an official recession commencing anytime soon, we would have to experience a rapid rise of the national unemployment rate" from a level of 4.6 percent to about 6 percent by the end of 2008 -- a loss of about 2 million jobs. Not to say there is not risk of recession -- Leamer's report states that "there really is some significant recession risk out there." While the construction sector has been losing jobs, that alone won't be enough t...