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No-recession forecast hinges on unemployment data

UCLA report anticipates 25-30% home-price drop

Citing disconnects in various economic indicators, the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast sticks with a no-recession theme but notes that the latest unemployment numbers -- if they hold -- "strongly favor the hypothesis that we are in recession." Market analysts and economists have a wide range of opinions on the recession question, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said this month that the chance of a severe recession is diminishing. Edward Leamer, director for the quarterly University of California, Los Angeles, forecast, states in his report, titled, "Muddied Waters," that the housing market's drag on the nation's gross domestic product may prove to be "the most severe since the Great Depression," though the bright side is that "history suggests this cannot go on much longer." And while the unemployment rate rose from 5 percent in April to 5.5 percent in May, "One month ... does not a trend make," Leamer state...

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