News of a 467,000-job loss in June, one-third worse than forecast, is hurting stocks but no help to long rates: the 10-year is stuck at 3.5 percent, mortgages just under 5.5 percent. "Green shooters" say the payroll weakness was magnified by temporary auto-plant closings, and they point to signs of bottom in auto sales and housing prices, and see optimism in the June ISM-manufacturing survey crawling uphill. Overall car and truck sales did have their least-bad month since last September, but still dropped 28 percent from last June. At an annual rate of sales near 10 million, temporary closings will become permanent, with GM's and Chrysler's survival in doubt. Even if payroll-loss forecasts had been correct near 325,000, the figure would have been worse than the bottom of the 2001-2002 recession. Some inventory pipeline-filling is underway, with May factory orders up 1.2 percent, but the ISM's 44.8 is still five points into contraction. New data support the Agen...
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