A job-market surprise has reinforced the economic optimists and pushed long-term rates close to their highs of the year: the 10-year T-note to 3.86 percent, lowest-fee mortgages to 5.75 percent. The stock market is ecstatic, continuing its straight-line July run -- the S&P 500 at 1,015 today, the highest level since early October. In this morning's report, payrolls lost only 247,000 jobs in July, a hundred thousand fewer than most forecasts and barely half of the June losses. This first-Friday monthly employment report gets more attention than any because jobs drive consumption and tax revenue. If too cold they drive recession, if too hot: inflation. Today's news has the normal-cyclical-recovery crowd as overjoyed as the stock market: the job market tends to turn after recessions have already ended, so this one must be over. Weekly claims for unemployment insurance give a little support to the payroll surprise, down to the 550,000-575,000 range since the April peak at 6...
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