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Real estate’s October report card

Perspective: More convinced of 'W'-shaped recovery
Published on Oct 8, 2009

While both the media and stock investors believe that housing has bottomed, they are unaware of the massive supply of homes that are already in the foreclosure process that will certainly drive home prices down even further when they are sold. We have been projecting a "W"-shaped recovery for some time, and we are becoming even more convinced that we are right. The shape of the second leg down is almost completely dependent on the level of government intervention that will take place. For a number of reasons, banks have not been aggressively taking title to homes and selling them, which has resulted in very few distressed sales in comparison to the actual level of distress in the market. This delay in bank-owned home (REO) sales, along with historically low mortgage rates and an $8,000 tax credit, has helped to stabilize the housing market -- temporarily. It is very clear that price stabilization is temporary unless something is done. Here are some facts to help pr...

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