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Forecast: Recovery to pick up in late 2011

Uncertainty is recipe for 'very sluggish' growth
Published on Sep 15, 2010

History suggests that recoveries from debt-fueled financial bubbles are bound to be slow.But this time, a recovery is also being hampered by "an extraordinary increase" in policy uncertainty, according to the latest quarterly forecast by economists with the UCLA Anderson Forecast."With uncertainty hovering over the economy like a gray cloud, we don't visualize a return to trend growth to approach 3 percent or so until late 2011," said David Shulman, a senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast."In this environment, the unemployment rate will remain extraordinarily high, ending this year at 9.7 percent and 2011 at 9.5 percent."That's about where unemployment is now -- 9.6 percent was the official rate reported for August.The UCLA Anderson Forecast anticipates that housing starts, which plummeted from a peak of 2.07 million in 2005 to 554,000 last year, will total only 606,000 this year and 815,000 next year. It will be 2012 before housing star...

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