Industry NewsMarkets & Economy

Housing to finish last in recovery?

Commentary: U.S. plays caboose to China's economic engine

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Forces building since October have at last blown long-term rates to the next levels. The all-defining 10-year Treasury note was trading at 3.66 percent this morning (prior range: 3.28 percent to 3.51 percent, which held since early December), and there is nothing to stop it short of 4 percent, the April top in 2010.

The mortgage damage is similar, low-fee 30-year loans pushing 5.25 percent.

The twin impetus pushing the rate rise -- stronger economic numbers and borrowing by the Treasury -- are not rocket science, but the details are more "Through the Looking Glass" than normal recovery cycle.

The economy has not changed pattern; we just have a great deal more of the same. Business giants, joined by any venture plugged into the global economy, have accelerated to a new plane -- not just earnings, but now "top line" growth in revenue.

Those who thought the emerging world could pull the U.S. caboose were co...