Industry NewsMarkets & Economy

2012 is make or break

Credit house of cards just gets bigger

Don't miss the real estate event of the summer
Join 4,000 real estate pros at Connect SF, Aug 7‑11, 2017

A new year begins next week, and it is time for my annual dodge. Peter Drucker, one of the world's few worthwhile business theorists: "Nobody can predict the future. The idea is to have a good grasp of the present."This year, no flinching. Why such foolish courage? In more than one econo-political arena we have dithered and fiddled so long that something is going to happen, and all I have to do is guess what. In order from easiest to hardest ...Interest rates: Nothing big. Maybe nothing at all. The bond market is behaving as though the Fed intends a 2 percent cap on 10-year T-notes. Why argue?U.S. economy: As is. The fantastic stimulus in the economy should keep it afloat, but the housing drag will keep it low in the water. Primary risk: if the foreclosure resale engine is finally allowed to run and undercuts prices (again). All other risks to us are from overseas. Upside surprises will be limited to regions first-in to the housing bust, first to recover, my home state Color...