A group of colleagues asked me two weeks ago what interest rates were going to do. I answered in an authoritative voice, "They've been in the same place for seven months -- it'll take an earthquake to move them."Ahem. The opinion was correct, but I was clueless about the proximity of the quake. An "F" for that. In one week the Fed announced no MBS-buying QE3, U.S. economic data improved, and Europe re-re-floated Greece. Until one or more of those three things change, technical analysis is the usual guide, looking for chart-pattern "support." There is none of that, either. The 10-year T-note fell from 3 percent last August to 2 percent in a single, straight-line month, and spent very little time north of 2.15 percent in the next seven months. Having now blown u...
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