Markets have found a patch of stability today, the U.S. 10-year Treasury trading at 1.72 percent, which has pulled 30-fixed no-point mortgages down into a range near 3.625 percent. At these levels, only about 0.25 percent above the all-time lows at the end of 2012. Most important for peace of mind: these chaotic global markets have been caused by events overseas, and there is no sign of domestic recession in any indicators except those which rely on stocks. Early forecasts have Q1 GDP (gross domestic product) rebounding to 2.5 percent annual growth. And we have been here before: the ’97-’98 “Asian Contagion” was a similar affair, which ultimately helped the U.S. economy. So what in hell is this all about, the S&P 500 dumping from 2100 to 1850 in 60 days, U.S. long-term rates in the face of Fed rate hikes dropping to mid-crisis lows, so low then only in anticipation of quantitative easing (QE)? Here at home, it’s easy to explain. Better than 60 percent of S&...
- Chaotic global markets have been caused by events overseas, and there is no sign of domestic recession in any indicators except those which rely on stocks.
- Panic out there pushes global money to U.S. bonds and even MBS for safety and to find some yield.
- What might rescue the outside world? And if no rescue, at what point might outer waves of gravity hurt us?