• If the S&P500 rises above 1940, then there's a good chance that January was an aberration and stocks will rise from there.
  • A lot of people think the central banks are the cause of all of this upset, and if they would just step aside, then markets would fix themselves, rates rising in a healthy way.
  • The contrary view: Central banks have been holding open economic breathing room against contractionary pressure. If they stopped assistance, economies would be exposed at crush-depth, rates falling far lower.

Exhaustion beats panic. Phew! It’s quiet out there for the moment. Also, if you happen to be in a pickle as bad as the Fed’s, it is miraculous to have this unusual crowd of Presidential candidates occupying each other and the media. Markets have paused in never-never land. The S&P500 has decoupled from the economy, its ugly January not confirmed by U.S. economic data. It traded Friday at 1915. If it rises above 1940, then there's a good chance that January was an aberration and stocks will rise from there. On the other hand, fall below 1860, then 1830 ... a lot of air below. The 10-year Treasury and mortgages have held the bottoms of their free-fall, 10s at 1.75 percent, mortgages a hair under 3.75 percent. The U.S. stock market drop had clear origin: sympathy wi...