We have just elected the least predictable president in U.S. history. Friction between voters who feel that they personally “won” or “lost” is hotter than any time since 1968. The nation has been stuck in gridlock for 14 years -- actually a comfortable and predictable cocoon for housing and mortgage markets, safe from political lurches. No longer: movement ahead. Not even The Donald knows what will happen next week. And we’re going to forecast next year? I was steeped in history in my crib (1949) by two political-junkie parents, so let's take a long, long back view and evaluate probabilities just one year ahead. Inventory Housing may be the easiest category of all. We close 2016 short of for-sale inventory in all markets worth buying. That’s not going to change. Trump or no Trump, nothing is suddenly going to increase the available supply of buildable land -- that’s the choke point, not nails or two-by-fours. Some things may chill ardor among buyers, but a...
- Accumulated unsatisfied demand for housing is going to persist no matter what.
- Mortgage rates would have to approach 5.00 percent to slow things down a lot.
- One party pulling in unison might achieve revenue-neutral tax reform and more.
- Spending targeted toward infrastructure will provide little durable boost for the economy.