Psychology on Wall Street changed completely this week, to economic optimism and concern for inflation, and assumption that the Fed is done with rate cuts or will be shortly. Low-fee fixed mortgages are 6.375 percent, jumping with all interest rates, long and short. The Fed-forecasting 2-year T-note has soared from 1.7 percent to 2.24 percent.

This week, "credit" appeared only in sentences including this clause: "The worst is over." The worst probably is over for write-downs of the abysmal "structured securities" of the 2001-2007 era. However, euphoria at that prospect masks these things: the financial system is still too busted to function properly; credit is extremely scarce and expensive; the system is terribly vulnerable to recession-cycle credit loss ahead; and inflation here, there and everywhere is forcing global economic slowdown.  more...