Brace yourself
By Matt Carter, Thursday, August 23, 2007.
The latest numbers on new home sales come out from NAHB tomorrow, and NAR releases its report on existing home sales for July on Monday. The Wall Street Journal's Real Time Economics blog has a roundup of pessimistic notes by market analysts.
Here's an excerpt from analyst at BNP Paribas Fixed Income:
"Friday's data on new home sales are clearly
‘pre-turmoil’ but should nonetheless be shockingly weak, underlining
that the housing market was continuing to meltdown even before the
credit crunch of recent weeks. … Add in the fact that the new home
sales data (and the inventory data) are not adjusted for cancellations
which are still running at a 30-40% rate according to some of the major
homebuilders then the ‘true’ new home sales number is far lower than
the data being reported each month. And given spiking mortgage rates
and increased uncertainty, cancellation rates appear to be rising once
again.”
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