Growth to Glut

U.S. Census Bureau estimates released this week highlight county areas with major growth in new housing units during a period spanning from July 1, 2005, to July 1, 2006. Rapid growth is not always a good thing -- especially when it is accompanied by rampant speculation, rising prices and a mortgage crisis. Some of the same areas that saw a construction surge are now suffering through a major oversupply. (See Inman News story.)

Seven of the top-25 counties with the highest rate of housing-unit growth during the reporting period are in Florida, and seven of the top-25 counties for the largest numerical increase in housing units are also in Florida.

Flash forward to July 2007: Single-family existing-home sales are down 24 percent compared to July 2006, and are down 29 percent year-to-date through July 2007 compared to the same period last year. The median sales price was down 5 percent in July 2007 compared to the same month last year, and year-to-date prices were down 4 percent in July compared to the same period last year, the Florida Association of Realtors reported.

Sumter County, Fla., ranked second on the Census list of counties for its 13.6 percent rate of housing-unit growth from July 1, 2005, to July 1, 2006, behind Arizona's Pinal County. Lee County, Fla., ranked fourth on the list with a 9.1 percent growth rate, behind Kendall County, Ill. The Fort Myers-Cape Coral metro area in Lee County experienced a 39 percent drop in existing single-family home sales in July 2007 and a 7 percent drop in the median sales price.

The Miami-Dade County, Fla., metro area had the sixth highest growth in the total number of housing units in the July 2005 to July 2006 period, adding 24,327 housing units for a total of 953,025 units. First on the list was Maricopa County, Ariz., which added 42,980 units during that period for a total of 1.5 million units. The Florida Association of Realtors reported that the Miami metro area saw a 25 percent decline in existing single-family home sales in July 2007 compared to July 2006, while the median price there dropped 1 percent.

At the state level, Nevada's housing stock grew 4.5 percent from July 1, 2005, to July 1, 2006, while Arizona's grew 3.5 percent, Idaho's grew 3.4 percent and Florida's grew 3.3 percent. Lousiana lost 5.7 percent of its housing stock during that period due to hurricanes, and that state's St. Bernard Parish lost 76.2 percent of its housing stock while Orleans Parish lost 50.4 percent.

Florida led the nation in the largest numerical increase in housing units, adding 272,968 units from July 1, 2005, to July 1, 2006, while Texas added 198,496 units, California added 180,508 units and Louisiana lost 109,933 units, according to Census estimates.

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