Spinning the Wheel of Recession

David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, forecasts a 40 percent chance that the U.S. will slump into an economic recession -- Seiders estimates Gross Domestic Product growth of 0.5 percent in the current quarter and 1.5 percent growth in first-quarter 2008. The group's summary of his latest forecast is titled, "The Economy Enters a Serious Danger Zone."

Several other economists have also tossed out percentages to measure the likelihood that the nation will face a near-term economic recession.

A sampling:

• Dean Baker, co-director, Center for Economic and Policy Research    100 percent
• John Tucillo, former chief economist, National Assocaition of Realtors    80 percent
• Robert Shiller, economist, Yale University: Over 50 percent
• Ken Rosen, chairman, Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, UC Berkeley    45 percent
• David Seiders, chief economist, National Association of Home Builders    40 percent
• Lawrence Yun, chief economist, National Association of Realtors    10 percent

Any thoughts on the "R" word?

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