The Bush administration will reportedly announce an agreement tomorrow with members of the HOPE NOW coalition of lenders to freeze interest rates on many adjustable-rate mortgages for five years.
It's expected the deal will only apply to owner-occupied homes -- not those purchased by speculators. Only homeowners who are current on their payments but cannot afford a higher adjusted rate would be eligible. Borrowers with loans made between Jan. 1, 2005, through July 30 of 2007 who face interest rate resets between Jan. 1, 2008, and July 31, 2010, would reportedly be able to seek a reprieve.
There has been considerable debate about this proposal, and whether you like it may depend on who you are. If you are a prospective homebuyer rooting for massive price declines, the plan may be bad news, because its most fundamental goal is to prop up home prices
So what's the bottom line for the industry? You tell us. If the more than 2 million ARM loans that are scheduled to reset in the next two years are allowed to do so, will there be any lenders around to finance home purchases? Will an interest rate freeze keep prices from returning to levels that are based on market fundementals, and discourage buyers from reentering the market?
UPDATE: Bloomberg News reports that borrowers with FICO scores below 660 will be
given priority -- these are folks who probably have loans with teaser rates in the 7 percent to 9 percent range.
(Click continue reading for more discussion)
The underlying motivation for an interest rate freeze is not, of course, compassion for homeowners facing foreclosure. Lenders participating in this voluntary agreement are hoping that a freeze will slow the free fall in prices in markets where speculators ran rampant during the boom, stemming their losses and restoring confidence in credit markets.
The Bush administration is pushing the plan on lenders because many housing markets are in a vicious cycle where falling prices put more borrowers "upside down" -- their homes become worth less than they owe -- and they ultimately end up in foreclosure. Increasing foreclosures add to inventory (and create fear among prospective homebuyers), which pushes prices down further and puts more people upside down. First American CoreLogic has estimated that every 1 percent decline in home values produces an additional 70,000 foreclosures.
Lenders are going along with the plan in part because regulators or Congress could impose even more drastic measures if they don't. If the vicious cycle of price declines and foreclosures is not stopped, the fear is that financial markets will collapse under the strain and a recession will follow. Losses in mortgage lending are already rippling through credit markets, making it harder for individuals and businesses to get all kinds of loans. The housing downturn is also expected to put a major dent in consumer spending.
While prospective buyers might welcome home price declines, it's fair to say that most will need a job and somebody to loan them money to take advantage of the bargains that become available. While an interest rate freeze might slow the pace of foreclosures, you could argue that there's enough inventory in many markets that it would only slow, rather than halt price declines in the most inflated markets.