Anomaly or trend?
By Matt Carter, Tuesday, April 22, 2008.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) released its new monthly home price index today, which estimated that home prices were up about 0.6 percent between January and February. Of the nine Census tracts tracked by the index, the only ones that didn't see some appreciation were the the Mountain and South Atlantic tracts.
The index -- which relies on data from Fannie and Freddie, and so is mostly looking at sales and refis involving loans smaller than $417,000 -- seems somewhat at odds with other recent surveys, and even looks like it's more than a little conflicted with its own past (right-click graph to enlarge).
OFHEO explains part of the increase as being attributable to increased sales volumes in states with stronger housing markets, which "significantly increased estimated appreciation above what it would have been in the absence of such effects." Factor that in, and the national increase would have been only 0.3 percent in February. But an increase nonetheless.
Compare that to First American CoreLogic's LoanPerformance House Price Index, also out today, which estimated prices fell in 36 states in February.
The latest numbers from NAR, for March, show sales slipping but median home prices up from the previous month.
Since all markets are local, national stats are of limited utility, but they can -- at least in theory -- be useful in spotting trends.
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Submitted by Matt Carter on April 22, 2008 - 3:48pm.
Footnote from NAR numbers:
"(2) The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the geographic composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported."
OFHEO, however, says their numbers are seasonally adjusted.
Also, I should have noted that First American CoreLogic's numbers were for three months ending in February.
Needless to say, it's probably not a great idea to attempt to draw any meaningful conclusions from month-to-month changes.
But dang, that graph looks funny.
Submitted by Ki Gray on April 23, 2008 - 2:15pm.
I could kind of see this. As summer approaches some markets that are relatively stronger than the rest of country like Austin are seeing more sales. I guess California and Florida might not be seeing any increase in sales in March compared to the last few months.
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