For now at least, the U.S. auto industry's got its big three: GM, Ford and Chrysler. In real estate, you've got your big four title insurance underwriting companies -- soon to be the big three.

In 2007, the top four title insurers controlled 87 percent of the $14 billion U.S. title insurance business. First American Corp. led the pack with 30 percent market share, followed by Fidelity National Financial Inc. (26 percent), LandAmerica Financial Group (19 percent) and Stewart Information Services Corp. (12 percent).

With LandAmerica in Chapter 11 bankruptcy and Fidelity looking to buy its three underwriting subsidiaries -- Lawyers Title Insurance Corp., Commonwealth Land Title Insurance Co. and United Capital Title Insurance Co. -- the picture could soon look something like this: Fidelity (45 percent), First American (30 percent), and Stewart (12 percent).

But now we learn that Stewart also seems to be in the chase for LandAmerica's underwriters (see story).

If Stewart succeeds in outmaneuvering Fidelity, that would leave the three biggest companies still standing with roughly equal market share: Stewart (31 percent), First American (30 percent) and Fidelity (26 percent).

In a Nov. 10 analysis of a proposed Fidelity-LandAmerica merger, analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said that a combined Stewart and LandAmerica would make for a "healthy industry."

But KBW saw Fidelity as "the logical partner" for LandAmerica, because LandAmerica's $650 million-plus debt load would be too big a hurdle for Stewart, with its "conservative balance sheet philosophy," to overcome (this was before LandAmerica filed for bankruptcy protection and said instead of merging with another company, it would sell off its underwriting companies as part of a plan to pay off the parent company's debt).  

The KBW analysts ruled out First American because the company's management has said they aren't interested in acquisitions right now -- like everybody else, they are downsizing as fast as they can to survive the downturn.

Fidelity's management has indicated that in order to realize "synergies," layoffs would be an inevitable part of an acquisition of  Lawyers, Commonwealth and United. That's probably true regardless of who ends up with LandAmerica's underwriting subsidiaries.

That being said, who are you rooting for, Fidelity or Stewart? If Fidelity beats out Stewart, can Stewart boost its market share and attain parity with Fidelity and First American? Or will the big three eventually become the big two?

There's one other scenario that would preserve a "big four" title industry: What if Old Republic International Corp., which had 5 percent of the underwriting business in 2007, picked up LandAmerica's underwriters? That would create a landscape something like this: First American (30 percent), Fidelity (26 percent), Old Republic (24 percent) and Stewart (12 percent).

If that sounds far fetched, Old Republic did file an application with Nebraska regulators this week to acquire Lawyers and Commonwealth, but withdrew the application yesterday (see story link above).

What about First American? Should the current leader reconsider and jump into the hunt, now that it's LandAmerica's underwriting companies on the block, and not the parent company and all its debt? Or are they wise to stay on the sidelines and let Fidelity and Stewart engage in a bidding war?

Fidelity is hoping to wrap up a $298 million deal with LandAmerica this month, but LandAmerica's creditors are objecting to a quick sale and have asked the bankruptcy court to hold off on approving it, saying a better offer could emerge (for details, and access to filings in the case, see the story).

UPDATE: Fidelity has the go-ahead from bankruptcy court to acquire Lawyers, Commonwealth (see story).

UPDATE TWO: Feds standing aside on antitrust issues (see story).

Flickr photo by floodllama

Mark your calendars!

December 17, 2008 at 11am PST.

We're holding a FREE audio townhall meeting for all Inman News readers next week on the future of the real estate industry, moderated by Inman News publisher Bradley Inman. As part of our Roadmap to Recovery series, we've convened 4 industry leaders to discuss what the future holds for real estate agents, brokers, ancillary service and technology providers.

Featuring:

• Kris Berg, Co-owner and Designated Broker, San Diego Castles Realty - Making real estate 'guacamole'

• Marty Frame, SVP & GM, Cyberhomes - Growing 'in times of turmoil'

• Pam O'Connor, President/CEO, Leading Real Estate Companies of the World - Lost jobs delay real estate revival

• Patrick Stone, Chairman, The Stone Group - A call for expertise, 'de-cruiting' in real estate

Attendence is limited, so register quickly! In order to listen in to the call, you will need to do the following:

1. Fill out the townhall registration form.
2. That's it! Completed submissions will recieve the dial-in number and access code.

Don't Delay - Register Today!

Inman Premium Members get priority access to all Inman News podcasts and webinars. Buy an Inman Premium Membership today.

Known as the "space ship house," this 2,000-square-foot saucer-shaped residence in Chatanooga, Tenn., is reportedly up for auction on Dec. 14.

We're not sure if it's flightworthy. (And yes, this image has been embellished with spooky lighting effects!)

I know it might seem hard to believe, but the cost of travel has come down considerably over the last few weeks.  A pleasant side effect of falling fuel prices and a slow economy is that airlines and hotels are getting aggressive in attracting your business.  Now is one of the best times in a long while to book travel; especially to place like, oh, I don't know--  New York City on January 7-9th.  ;-)

Just this morning, flights for me from Richmond, VA to NYC were $120 round-trip on JetBlue.  Sweet.  You might be traveling further than me, but chances are, you can do it for a lot less than you thought.  

Same story on hotel rooms. We were able to negotiate a lower room rate with the Marriott Marquis, which has been applied to anyone who previously registered there. If you are looking to save even more, there are plenty of hotel deals to be had. Here are some sites you can check to find the best available deals:

• Farecast -- Winner of the 2008 Webby Award in the travel category. Farecast searches for cheap flights and gives free airfare pricing predictions.

• Kayak -- Kayak searches hundreds of travel sites to give you the widest possible choice then offers direct booking from the selected travel site.

• Hotwire -- JD Power Award winner for 3rd straight year. Hotwire lets you compare prices against other major travel sites to make sure you're getting the best possible deal.

• Expedia -- The World's leading online travel agency. Offering great package deals and top notch customer service.

 We're also very pleased to be able to offer one lucky Connect attendee a very special deal: 

Register for Connect NYC '09 through December 21st, 2008 and you will be entered into a drawing for the chance to win 3 nights at the Marriot Marquis, a $720 value, plus a dinner voucher worth $80. The winner will be announced Monday, December 21st right here, on the Inman Blog.  

Wait, there's more. . .

I know that the folks who attend Connect NYC are some of the friendliest folks in the industry.  I know that many of you are probably interested in sharing a hotel room.  After all, there's nothing like making a new friend, right?  If you are interested in finding a roommate, or you found an awesome travel deal that you really want to share with everyone, head on over to the Connect NYC '09 group in the Inman Community and find a roommate or share your deal.  

If you were thinking, "man, I really want to go to Connect NYC '09, but I'm not sure about the travel," you're not the only one.  The reality is, it's a lot more affordable than you might have guessed.  With our help, and the help of the Inman Community, you can make the trip to NYC on just about any budget.  Don't miss out!

D'oh!!! FDIC announces bank failure number 23 for the year -- that's 13 since the first week of September, when FDIC chairwoman Sheila Bair warned of more to come. The previous high in recent years was 11 failures in 2002. If you go back to the early 90s, a total of 291 FDIC insured banks failed from 1991 to 1993.

First Georgia Community Bank, based in Jackson, had $197.4 million in deposits; failure will cost FDIC's insurance fund $72.2 million. These are always announced after closing time Friday to give people a chance to calm down instead of pulling all their money out. Georgia Community Bank's branches will reopen Saturday as branches of United Bank under an assumption agreement with the FDIC.

Judy Jones, who used to police foreclosed homes in Corona, Calif., for code violations until the city laid her off, could now be facing foreclosure herself. Her plight illustrates this CBS news piece on the worsening feedback loop between the housing downturn and the economy.

As the economy continues to slow and layoffs mount, that puts more homeowners in a position where they can't make their mortgage payments. That creates more foreclosures, adding to strains on the financial system that threaten to cripple the economy.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said Friday that at the current rate, 2.2 million homes will enter the foreclosure process this year, and that next year is likely to be worse. We also learned on Friday that employers laid off 533,000 workers in November alone, sending unemployment to a 15-year high of 6.7 percent.

While real estate comebacks have gotten us out of past recessions, it's hard to imagine that happening this time. Housing markets are already weak as this recession starts to pick up steam. An estimated 12 million homeowners are already "upside down" -- they owe more than their home is worth -- making it harder for them to avoid foreclosure when faced with a job loss or resetting ARM loan.

Mortgage rates are falling, thanks in part to the Fed's plan to buy $600 billion in debt and mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. There's even talk of a Treasury Department program to get rates on conforming loans all the way down to 4.5 percent.

But can the Mortgage Fairy save us? Underwriting standards remain tough for many would-be home buyers, and many who can qualify are fearful of buying in such uncertain times. Home prices may have fallen in their market to the point where they are seeing bargains they'd like to take advantage of. But it's hard to make what for many will be the biggest purchase of their lives when their job may be the next one to evaporate.

The bottom line? Home prices in many markets may continue to fall, overshooting historic price-to-income trend lines on their way past levels where they would normally find support from economic fundamentals.

This year has been a period of tremendous upheaval. Our industry in particular has been heavily hit and every day we hear about more and more of our friends and colleagues that have been laid off due to these unprecedented economic conditions.

Inman News wants to help. Our Community section, for example, features a number of available positions in our job search board.

We also recognize that our upcoming Real Estate Connect conference in New York City is the industry's premier event for high-level networking. In the spirit of keeping our community strong, we want to extend a special opportunity to any industry professional that has recently lost their job to attend Connect and take advantage of this unique networking opportunity.

If you would like to attend Connect but are unable to do so due to a recent job loss, please send an email to elaine@inman.com or call 1-800-775-4662 ext. 128  for special consideration. All information will be kept strictly confidential.

We all make New Year's resolutions.  I can't think of a better way to fulfill your business resolutions for 2009 than by attending Connect NYC '09. 

There are currently over 750 people registered to be at Connect NYC '09.  All of those people are going to be getting their year off on the right foot by gathering knowledge, information and inspiration that can only be found at an event as unique as Connect NYC '09.  The brightest minds in the industry will be there, sharing, learning, and discussing.  With over 750 attendees already registered, chances are that some of your competitors will be there, too, so don't miss out!

Because the response to Connect NYC '09 has been so great, we wanted to extend the early bird pricing for one more week, so that as many people as possible can take advantage of this awesome opporunity to energize their business for 2009.  You'll have through December 7th to save with early bird pricing for Connect NYC '09.

With all of the smart, insightful, successful people that are already attending, shouldn't you be one of them?  Don't miss out!