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Confessions of a NAR economist

By Inman News, Monday, January 12, 2009.

A Wall Street Journal article catches up with David A. Lereah, the former chief economist for the National Association of Realtors who was known for talking up the housing market well into the downturn.

Lereah left the association to participate in a secretive project at Realtor.com-operator Move Inc. in mid-2007, and that project was canceled last year (see Inman Blog).

The Wall Street Journal reports that Lereah, 55, "says he was pressured by executives to issue optimistic forecasts -- then was left to shoulder the blame when things went sour. 'I was there for seven years doing everything they wanted me to.' "

A NAR spokesman, meanwhile, said in the article that Lereah used similar forecasts in his book, which was not published by the trade group.

The article includes a link to a sidebar article with statements Lereah made about the market from January 2006 through January 2007, as well as a link to a real estate newsletter that he now produces, titled the Reecon Advisory Report.

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Submitted by on January 13, 2009 - 2:33pm.

From the story: "He charges $495 annually for the newsletter, and currently has fewer than 50 paying subscribers."

 
Submitted by on January 14, 2009 - 5:15am.

Matt- I wouldn't pay him $4.95 for his prognostications. $495 - are you kidding me?

Jay Thompson
Broker / Owner
Thompson's Realty

Blog: www.PhoenixRealEstateGuy.com

.

 
Submitted by on January 14, 2009 - 12:18pm.

Jay -- You can check out past reports at the link to Reecon Advisory Report in Glenn's post. They look to be primarily a roundup of items that have been in the MSM, plus some graphs of market stats. Not really for me to say whether that's worth $495, regardless of who's putting it together...

 
Submitted by James Boyer on January 16, 2009 - 6:23am.

This kind of stuff is why NAR is losing credibility with the public and to a small extent now it is rubbing off on the Realtors as well.

In this business you need to be a trusted source of information and advice, or why should people use your services.

NAR you need to learn a lesson from this, it does not matter how bad the news is, you need to give it as it is, or not give it at all. Otherwise nobody will every trust you.

James Boyer
New Jersey Realtor
973-647-0253 Direct
973-539-6300 Office
http://www.jboyerhomes.com

 
Submitted by Jennifer Giraldi on January 18, 2009 - 11:34am.

This is hilarious! Are you kidding me? I remember those commercials that told everyone it was the best time to buy. 6 months later people have watched their home values plummet.

Atlanta Real Estate

 
Submitted by Matt Drouin on January 21, 2009 - 7:02am.

Very true. The national association of Realtors has been playing the same commercial about how "now is the time to buy" for the past two years.

Now, the commercial sounds like "Before was a good time to buy, but NOW is a REALLY good time to buy!" James Boyer's comment strikes true about NAR's credibility. It's great they are promoting practitioners as the go to people for all real estate needs in main stream media outlets, but do they need to make forecasts about timing the market? Jeez Louise!

Regarding market timing, do not rely on statistics produced by Case-Shiller, NAR, or anyone that has a financial incentive for supporting any position (good luck). The funny thing about statistics is that they can be modified and stretched to support any thesis whatsoever.

Thank God that Rochester, NY has not faced a real estate downturn, or else all of the "Statistics" that NAR have provided me to share with my clients (to put them at ease) would have jeopardized my relationship and reputation.

Matt Drouin
Associate Broker
Nothnagle Realtors
http://www.nyhomesgetsold.com