Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages continued to hover near 5.5 percent for the lowest-fee packages.

This week's economic data were overshadowed by the mega-reports due on Monday from the purchasing managers' association and next Friday's news of February payrolls. There may have been a predictive glimmer in the Conference Board's confirmation that consumer confidence fell hard in February, as confidence is heavily influenced by job market conditions. If that pattern holds, then February will have been another thin month for payrolls.

Alan Greenspan had a big week.  more...

Mortgage rates fell a little this week, back down to 5.625 percent, assisted by some not-so-hot economic data, a non-threatening performance by Alan Greenspan, and massive buying of bonds by foreign central banks.  more...

New hiring in January was a disappointment; not enough to pull mortgage rates down from 5.75 percent, but enough to buy another month of Fed patience.

Today's report was, if anything, more disappointing than the news of a net gain of 125,000 jobs, barely half the hopeful forecasts. The key number: wages in January grew by only .1 percent.  more...

Job market weakness in today's report has staggered the markets, and knocked long-term rates down to their post-November lows, 4.08 percent on the 10-year T-note, and 30-year, low-fee mortgages sliding below 5.75 percent.  more...

Mortgage rates are holding just below 6 percent, rising on the extraordinary strength of the purchasing managers' survey for December, released this morning. If the jobs data next Friday are likewise way above forecast, the markets' assumption about Fed patience through 2004 will be questioned immediately.

It our custom at each New Year to recite our forecasting mantra, which is Peter Drucker's terse instruction to all: "Nobody can predict the future; keep a firm grasp of the present."  more...