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Intercepting the credit-default spiral

By Lou Barnes, Friday, January 9, 2009.

The Fed's purchases of agency MBS (mortgage-back securities) have succeeded in capping mortgage rates near 5 percent with the lowest fees (1 percent origination easily buys high-fours).  more...

Expect Fed to take more giant steps

By Lou Barnes, Monday, January 5, 2009.
Flickr photo by <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/wheatfields/3102519250/in/photostream/" target=blank>net_efekt</a>.

Offer "Happy New Year!" to a friend, and you'll get, "Same to you," followed by an unprintable reference to 2008. Inquire about plans for 2009 -- corporate or personal -- and replies go like this:

"Ummm ... I was thinking about adding another layer of sandbags to the bunker, maybe some wire, and ... Hey, have you seen my helmet around here, anywhere?"  more...

The 4.5% mortgage myth?

By Lou Barnes, Friday, December 19, 2008.
Flickr photo by <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/moe/15797987/" target=blank>Moe</a>.

The Fed's cut to "zero to 0.25 percent" cost of money and non-response in the mortgage markets combined to produce consternation among a refinance-hungry public.

Excepting a frantic hour at no-fee 4.75 percent on Wednesday morning, mortgage rates remain as they have been for 10 days, roughly 5 percent with an inescapable origination fee. And that deal is available only for the best FICOs and loan-to-values.  more...

Congress forgets role in $350B whodunit

By Lou Barnes, Friday, December 12, 2008.
Flickr photo by <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/loopzilla/216718092/" target=blank>LoopZilla</a>.

On Wednesday morning mortgage rates collapsed close to 5 percent -- just under for fee-heavy deals, just above for fee-light, and all were a tad higher today.

Some notes on mortgage pricing:

These super-low rates are limited to 740-plus FICOs and 80 percent or less loan-to-value. Fannie and Freddie, despite 90 days in federal hands, still maintain punitive FICO pricing -- 695 FICOs have to pay a fee just to get 5.5 percent.  more...

'Mortgage Fairy' can't save us

By Lou Barnes, Friday, December 5, 2008.
Flickr image by <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/redstar/45495640/" target=blank>levaine</a>.

In one of the few benefits of increasing age: The older you get, the more times you've blown off your eyebrows in the lab and the less shocked you are when things that "can't happen" ... happen.

The markets today, a bunch of kids under 50, are jaw-dropped -- so whacked upside the head they can't even find the big river in Egypt. They've spent their whole working lives back-testing risk models back to the Civil War (between Athens and Sparta), absolutely certain of what can and cannot happen, leveraged to the eyeballs based on those boundaries.  more...

Fed seeks to avoid Great Depression II

By Lou Barnes, Wednesday, November 26, 2008.
Source: National Archives

Yesterday the Fed announced that it would begin to buy mortgage and other private debt securities -- easily the most dramatic and unprecedented action in the Fed's 95-year history.

Mortgages immediately fell a half-percent to 5.5 percent. An immense volume of loan-rate locks has pushed rates back up a bit today, but the decline is highly likely to resume. For the first time in the last 18 months' credit-market nightmare the authorities have moved in front of the crisis, jumping past broken banks to fund the nation.  more...

Money can buy end to 'spiral'

By Lou Barnes, Friday, November 21, 2008.

One week ago today, Henry Paulson announced that federal efforts had "stabilized the banking system." On Wednesday a new panic rolled through markets, running to Treasurys. T-bills 90 days and shorter fell to 0.01 percent, and the 10-year T-note dropped from 3.61 percent to 3.01 percent. Few ran to mortgages: Rates fell briefly below 6 percent and are back there today. All ran from non-federal credits, dumping munis and corporates.  more...

Economy needs full $700 billion, and more

By Lou Barnes, Friday, November 14, 2008.
Flickr photo by <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/toestubber/2662161767/" target=blank>the_toe_stubber</a>.

The credit market thaw paused this week: LIBOR fell just a little; mortgages touched 6 percent and rebounded; short-term Treasury rates are still near zero; and corporate and consumer credit is as scarce and expensive as ever.

Massive, global intervention by central banks and national treasuries has been under way for only a month. It just seems longer when you're having fun.  more...

Banks must resume lending

By Lou Barnes, Friday, November 7, 2008.

The credit markets this week continued to thaw. All-important LIBOR fell to 2.38 percent for 90-day money; and one-year is down to 2.84 percent -- ARMs resetting next month will settle just a hair above 5 percent. 30-year mortgage rates with no fees made it to 6 percent, but for the umpteenth time this year stopped at that barrier.  more...

Chase away media goblins

By Lou Barnes, Friday, October 31, 2008.
Flickr photo by <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/doug88888/2954466648/" target=blank>doug88888</a>.

Ghosts and goblins descended upon us way back in mid-September, deviling civilians and bankers alike in a rolling Halloween that will not end with the dawn. This is the wrong year to sneak up and shout, "BOO!!" That might finish somebody off altogether.

As confusing and frightening as this interval is, there is progress -- a lot of it, and less damage than the leapfroggers of doom would have it. "You think this is bad? Lemme tell you how really bad …" "Oh yeah? That's nothing; wait'll you hear this. …"  more...

Standing up the dominoes

By Lou Barnes, Friday, October 24, 2008.

Mortgage rates bottomed at 6 percent early in the week, down 0.75 percent in four days, and are back to 6.25 percent now (lowest fees). Five-something loans will have to wait for stabilization in global credit or effective federal intervention.

The depth of the recession ahead will depend on the job market, and the newest data shows surprising resilience: New claims for unemployment insurance are still inside the 60-day range, just under a half-million weekly. Since the onset of credit collapse on Sept. 15, the real economy has resembled the adversary of the great swordsman,  more...

Rescue sidesteps economic 'black hole'

By Lou Barnes, Friday, October 17, 2008.
Flickr image by <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/fdecomite/427241276/">fdecomite</a>.

Four weeks ago yesterday marked the turning point in the Great Run of '08: after the Lehman disaster the White House and Congress vowed to intervene as necessary.

Last Monday afternoon marked the fact of effective intervention, with authorities for the first time moving ahead of the crisis. The Treasury summoned the CEOs of the nine largest bank-survivors and broke the capital shortage by involuntary injection -- an event and scene without American precedent.  more...

The Great Run of '08

By Lou Barnes, Friday, October 10, 2008.

I continue to have great confidence that the authorities will succeed in ending the Great Run of '08, and jumpstarting credit. However, there was no progress this week, and financial markets are a shambles not worth talking about.

The Main Street economy downshifted in August, entering a still-steepening decline, but ... but, amazing strength remains and positive developments are baked into nearby cake.  more...

Panic misses Main Street

By Lou Barnes, Friday, October 3, 2008.

Mortgage rates are stuck just above 6 percent, but at least they're not blowing up or shut down along with the rest of the credit world. We and our peers are operating normally.

Passage of the rescue bill has pushed up long-term Treasury rates, as markets anticipate large sales of new Treasury bonds to raise bailout cash. The stock market has stopped nauseating freefalls twice this week. These moves also reflect hopes for coordinated global central bank rate cuts over the weekend and a Euro-zone version of our rescue package.  more...

Bailout incites 'grassroots rage'

By Lou Barnes, Friday, September 26, 2008.

Mortgage rates are unchanged, about 6.125 percent, just one aspect of completely frozen credit markets, hostage to a political moment without parallel.

The real economy is tipping over: New claims for unemployment insurance last week jumped to 493,000 from the 450,000 range. Orders for durable goods in August plunged 4.5 percent, double the forecast decline, and sales of new homes free-fell 11 percent.  more...

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