Mortgage rates are about the same as they have been averaging: 6.25 percent for basic conforming loans.

All other markets are in frantic action, a perfect mirror of the struggle between two groups for accurate perception of the economy. One crowd is plugged into the global economy, technology and stock-market optimism; to them, business has never been better. The second crowd is the bond/bank bunch: we weren't there at the time, but things look a lot like the run in to the 1930s.  more...

Mortgage rates are stuck just above 6 percent, but the key indicator of anxiety, the 10-year T-note, fell into the 4.30s. The drop was brisk following news of deepening weakness in housing and credit.

Stocks are holding a key level, in Dow terms, 13,500. That market recovered once this week on the rumor that things were so bad that the Fed would cut its rate before its Halloween meeting. A Fed panic would be good news?  more...

All U.S. interest rates have broken lower. The mortgage-defining 10-year T-note is trading at 4.4 percent, down from 4.7 percent last week, but mortgages will be slow to follow. Even agency loans are stuck in credit fear, but are likely to approach 6 percent soon.

Fed-defining short-term rates have dived almost a half-percent, a sure sign of renewed credit panic.  more...

Mortgage rates are about the same (6.5 percent); the defining 10-year Treasury market is about the same (at 4.65 percent defying several opportunities for higher); the stock market is about the same (globalized optimism); and the credit crunch is about the same.

Markets are stalled in the agonizing wait to know the compound damage done by the credit crunch and housing recession.  more...

The September employment report arrived at dawn this morning, in the short term reinforcing economic optimists, dashing hopes for mortgage rates to fall to refi levels (the market is stuck near 6.5 percent), and likely to put the Fed on hold.

In the long run, this week's economic data settled nothing. Any investor, broker, business or employee plugged into the global engine feels strength and fears nothing but inflation.  more...

Mortgage rates are about the same, just under 6.5 percent, but the ultra-indicator, the 10-year T-note yield, has gradually fallen from 4.7 percent last week to 4.6 percent.  more...

As incredulous clients are learning, mortgage rates are higher now than last week, back up to 6.5 percent for vanilla 30-year. Yes, higher. ("Sonny, you should be ashamed to try to trick an old lady! I still read the newspaper!  more...

The credit panic appeared to stabilize on Wednesday, interest rates rising a bit, but the crunch found new legs today on news of sinking retail sales. At week's end conforming mortgages are a hair under 6.5 percent, the gap to vanilla jumbos closing to roughly a 0.5 percent premium, half of the worst in August.  more...

Rates are in free-fall on news of an outright decline in August payrolls, and big downward revisions of the June and July reports.

Agency conforming mortgages are down to 6.25 percent, jumbos still sticky near 7 percent, and no change in availability: high-quality Alt-A still very pricey, as is any high-LTV lending.

I think the economic pattern is clear.  more...

The mortgage market is unchanged, credit available on old-fashioned agency terms and not much else. Rates are about the same, mid-sixes. For every tentative lender toe stuck back into scary water, another bather has run shrieking from the pool, or drowned. The same is true for general, nonmortgage credit: shrinking.  more...

Financial markets have quieted, more from exhaustion than resolution of the underlying credit panic. Agency mortgages never made it below 6.5 percent and are rising slightly now, and vanilla jumbos are still above 7 percent but easily available.  more...

"Agency" mortgages are as available as ever, about 6.75 percent, finally showing signs of decline toward ultra-safe Treasurys. High-quality jumbos are available but pricey, about a half-percent above agency, low-doc underwriting scarce. Piggyback seconds and PMI are available for low-down borrowers, but full-doc only. Appraisal underwriting is ferocious, arbitrary and late in the process.  more...

Interest rates for traditional Fannie/Freddie/FHA/VA mortgages are still in the same place, roughly 6.75 percent for the lowest-fee deals. These loans are fully available, underwriting unchanged, funding for closing as reliable as ever.

The rest of the mortgage world ... jumbos about 7.25 percent; Alt-A for big-down high-FICO, 9 percent. NINE.  more...

One perversely pleasant sign in this deepening credit panic: on Friday, frightened investors began to buy top-quality mortgages as fast as Treasurys, and the lowest-fee 30-year loans fell toward 6.5 percent.

In the prior two weeks, the failure of mortgage yields to follow Treasurys was worrisome for three reasons: it looked as though all mortgages had become toxic; second, a hallmark of a really bad credit crunch is a lock-up extending to AAA paper (which Fannies and Freddies certainly are); and lower fixed rates are crucial to offset the very rapid re-pricing and/or outright removal  more...

In the financial panic underway now, frightened money is pouring into Treasurys, but for the first time in modern experience the overflow is only a modest benefit to mortgages. The 10-year Treasury note is all the way to 4.78 percent, down a half-percent in three weeks, but mortgages are stuck near 6.625 percent, just a hair off the June high.

This disconnect is the mark of credit suspicion extending all the way into Fannie/Freddie "A" paper -- very much misplaced concern, says here.  more...