How to determine offer price in a slow market

Focus on property value, comparable sales

Inman News

Q: My wife and I have perfect credit and have stayed in our small affordable home for the last five years. We chose not to trade up because we believed the real estate bubble would soon burst, and hoped we could maybe pick up the broken pieces and buy a more expensive home on the cheap.

Today we looked at a beautiful home that is worth less than the mortgage amount. The problem is that the whole house will need new carpeting thanks to the people's dog not having being well-trained. Further, the current owners are chain smokers.

How do I determine how much lower than the asking price should I offer? And more importantly, why is the owner involved in the negotiating if the lender is the one that really loses out?

A: Until the lender forecloses on a property, the ownership doesn't change. That's why you're negotiating with the homeowner and not the lender. If the lender foreclosed, you'd be negotiating with the lender's real estate agent or the lender's own representative – which might not be any easier.
 
What you need to do in this kind of situation is focus on what the property is really worth. Take a look at similar homes (in a similar condition) that have recently sold. How much did they sell for? If they were in better condition, you can subtract the price of replacing the carpet, painting the walls, and doing whatever else you need to do to get the house into perfect condition.

It's possible that the home's list price already reflects the lower prices of homes sold in the neighborhood. If that's the case, yucky carpet and smoky walls or not, if the price of the property is on par with what is selling, you may not be able to get any more cash off the top to cover these necessary improvements.
 
The next stop is to present your offer. The seller may or may not agree to it. If the seller agrees, you'll still need to get the lender to agree to the terms of the sale – if the price means the lender will have to accept a short sale. Make sure you get the lender involved early on, or you might waste everyone's time.
 
And here's another concern – if there is more than one lender, you'll need to negotiate with both or all of them simultaneously. In cases where the primary lender is going to have to take a haircut, there will be no money left for the second lender. But that doesn't necessarily mean the second lender will agree to the sale.
 
When going into a short sale, know that the deal will typically be much more complicated that you expect. I'd hire a real estate attorney to help with the negotiations, and rely perhaps less on your agent.
 
Q: I am buying a new home that is not under construction yet. My contractor has asked for a "commitment letter" from my bank. My contractor then said that we would write up a contract.

When do I need to hire a real estate lawyer? And, since I am a first time homebuyer who can I go to with all of my questions?

A: Yes, you should hire a real estate attorney as soon as possible. Especially because it sounds like you have walked in off the street to a subdivision and are not working with a real estate agent.

I don't know what state you're living in, but I think that if you don't work with a real estate agent, you need to hire someone to work on your behalf, walk you through the deal, answer your questions, and make sure your rights are protected.

A real estate attorney fits that bill. You can find a good one through your local or state bar association.

To get even more valuable advice from Ilyce, visit her Personal Finance and Real Estate Center.

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Submitted by Jon Boyd on March 14, 2008 - 6:44am.

Ilyce,

There is another important aspect of valuation that we have been recommending for home buyers in level or declining markets.

To get a better idea of future value we look at current inventory and recent absorption rate.

As a recent example, we were helping a buyer who was looking at a particular neighborhood. There had been about 13 sales of similar homes in the last 12 months. When we were doing the evaluation there were about 25 similar homes for sale.

So the abosrption rate was about one home a month and the inventory level was then about two years. For most neighborhoods and home types this is a significant oversupply.

From basic economics when there is an oversupply the values will fall.

When we were able to explain this to the seller of our target home and they were able to see that if they kept their home at the price of previous home sales, they could be waiting two years to sell it.

With that information we were able to purchase the home for about 5% - 7% less than the comparable sales data would have indicated. Enough to at least partially protect the buyer from the predictable fall in values.

Jon Boyd
Immediate Past President of the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents (naeba.org)
Broker/Manager
The Home Buyer's Agent of Ann Arbor. Inc.