Progression in a recession? 

Flickr photo by orangachang.

Long-term rates are very close to breaking the post-May lows, the 10-year at 3.28 percent, and mortgages are doing even better, sliding toward 5 percent.

We are moving into the next economic phase as well as the next stage of understanding, the two working together to change the credit markets. There is always some gap between economic reality and our grasp, but this two-year event, so extreme and out of prior pattern, has produced a chasm between competing theories.

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