I agree that housing usuallyI agree that housing usually leads us in and leads us out. But I do not think that housing is a leading indicator: For that I look to the stock market. The stock market is like a giant wind vane. It always shows us where the wind is coming from and where it is headed. The problem, of course, is that the stock market, like the wind, changes direction frequently. And so how do we read the wind? The short answer is that sometimes you can and sometimes you can't.
A great marksman knows how to watch the wind and use the wind. She knows to wait until the wind has committed itself. When the wind is steady it's safe to shoot, but shoot while it flutters and you will surely miss your target.
There are times of change and we are in them. There is little sense of direction available: The economy of the whole world seems to flutter like a flag in an unpredictable wind. And thus, the stock market is our flag. Still fluttering with uncertainty, up one moment, and down the next.
Of course there are a wagon full of indicators that move the stock market.
There is GDP, unemployment, inflation, natural and manmade disaster, and so on, and so on, and so on. But there are just as many factors that effect the wind. And with so many of them happening at the same time all around the world -- it is simpler to just watch the wind and not worry so much why it has changed direction, again. And so the stock market, like the wind, tells me the culmination of events & indicators.
For now, this culmination is unclear, and that makes me feel unsettled. One headline runs into another... from optimistic to pessimistic, like a roller coaster ride... and the stock market (seems to me) always, just a little ahead of the curve. But, nonetheless, still without commitment -directionless: Nothing a master marksman would shoot at without leaving a wide margin for error. And so that is where I stand, as firmly as I can on unsteady ground.
And when I look around that is mostly what I see: Lack of commitment and lack of direction. Not as a result of a lack of diligence, but in spite of diligence and perhaps as a result of diligence. And hanging in the balance is nothing less than the life we know. The life we have learned to live with and to expect. But I do not believe this to be a time for expectations: And as the mystery of the stock market unravels itself I mostly expect the unexpected.
jeff davis, GRI, SFR, Ecobroker
Allen Tate Company
Broker/Realtor(R)
704-808-0496
www.HomeSearchByJeff.com