Home prices drop at record rate in national index 

Economist Robert J. Shiller sees warning signs in a national home-price index that dropped at a record rate in the third quarter.

"We are in the aftermath of the biggest housing boom in history," said Shiller, a Yale University economics professor, in a presentation today. "We're out of the range of normal variation in data. I take that as very significant. I think there is a significant chance of recession -- of probably over 50 percent at this point.

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