Slowing homebuyer demand suggests that housing’s in for a cool autumn, according a new Redfin index designed to measure housing demand and forecast home prices and sales.

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Takeaways:

  • Redfin has introduced a new housing demand metric using website traffic, the number of tours its agents gives and the offers that its clients write.
  • It shows demand is slowing this year.
  • Redfin forecasts that year-over-year sales price growth will dip in July and August.

Slowing homebuyer demand suggests that housing’s in for a cool autumn, according a new Redfin index designed to measure housing demand and forecast home prices and sales.

June’s 13 percent year-over-year jump in demand was the lowest of any month so far this year, according to the Redfin Housing Demand Index.

Housing-demand
Redfin’s index is adjusted to account for the brokerage’s market share growth. It is scaled to January 2013, the first month of the estimation period.

The Seattle-based brokerage builds the index by mashing up website traffic, the number of tours its agents give and the offers that its clients write to measure housing demand in 15 markets. Redfin has more than 1,000 agents in over 70 U.S. markets.

Given the June slowdown, Redfin forecasts that home price appreciation will slow in July and August from a year ago by rising 4.3 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. No month yet this year has recorded a year-over-year sales price bump of less than 5 percent, according to the new index.

Sales-price

The 15 markets Redfin uses to build the index are:

  • Atlanta
  • Austin, Texas
  • Baltimore
  • Boston
  • Chicago
  • Denver
  • Los Angeles
  • Oakland, California
  • Orange County, California
  • Phoenix
  • Portland, Oregon
  • San Diego
  • San Francisco
  • Seattle
  • Washington, D.C.

The index does not include the nation’s largest market, New York City, because Redfin does not yet have a presence there.

Email Paul Hagey.

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