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Zillow: Expect a ‘bumpy road ahead’ for real estate

While home values remained essentially flat in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, they fell when compared to second-quarter 2010, according to a report from property search and valuation site Zillow.

The Zillow Home Value Index fell 6.2 percent year over year in the second quarter, to $171,600, the report said. A report released today from the National Association of Realtors found 72 percent of metro areas had seen year-over-year median sales price declines in the second quarter, with the U.S. median price falling 2.8 percent, to $171,900.

Of 154 markets tracked by Zillow, 142 (92 percent) saw value declines year over year, while 94 (61 percent) saw value increases quarter to quarter. That resulted in a 0.4 percent dip compared to the first quarter — the smallest quarterly drop in more than four years, the report said.

"While there are many positive signs in the second quarter, and it is clear the post-tax-credit free-fall of home values is over, we’re not out of the woods yet," said Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, in a statement.

"It is very encouraging that two-thirds of markets in our report experienced home-value appreciation, but we have to remember that this is coming on the heels of one of the worst quarters since the housing recession began.

"We expect a bumpy road ahead. There will be many ups and downs in home values before this is over, and we continue to expect a true bottom in 2012, at the earliest. There are still hazards in the form of a full foreclosure pipeline, high negative equity, and fluctuations in demand."

Of single-family homes with mortgages, 26.8 percent of homeowners owed more than their house was worth, a slight drop from 28.4 percent in the first quarter.

Foreclosure resales peaked in March 2011 at 21.4 percent of all sales, and dropped slightly in June, to 19.7 percent, according to the report.

Year over year, Pittsburgh was the only metro among the nation’s 25 largest to experience median price appreciation, up 2.7 percent to $110,400. That market has remained by far the steadiest, posting only a 1 percent drop in appreciation since home values peaked in June 2006. Nationwide, home values have fallen 28.8 percent from that peak, the report said.

Largest 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas  Zillow Home Value Index  
Q2 2011 QoQ Change YoY Change Change From Peak Negative Equity*
United States $171,600 -0.40% -6.20% -28.80% 26.80%
           
Pittsburgh, Pa. $110,400 2.80% 2.70% -1% 6.70%
Boston, Mass. $318,700 2.10% -2.80% -20.60% 11.80%
Washington, D.C. $316,500 1.70% -3% -27.90% 24.90%
Riverside, Calif. $185,700 -0.80% -3.90% -53.90% 50.20%
Dallas, Texas $128,600 1.60% -4% -10.80% n/a
New York, N.Y. $347,100 -0.30% -4.70% -24.30% 17.10%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Fla. $140,900 1.10% -5.30% -54.20% 45.80%
San Diego, Calif. $350,400 -0.20% -5.80% -34.70% 25%
Orlando, Fla. $117,900 0.50% -6.10% -53.90% n/a
Baltimore, Md. $222,700 0.60% -6.30% -26.10% 28.20%
Cleveland, Ohio $111,700 0.80% -6.50% -22.80% 37.20%
Philadelphia, Pa. $192,100 0.10% -6.90% -18.80% 19.10%
Denver, Colo. $196,300 0.50% -6.90% -15.50% 39.80%
Los Angeles, Calif. $389,400 -0.50% -7.20% -35.70% 20.10%
Portland, Ore. $210,400 1.50% -7.20% -28.20% 33.10%
San Francisco, Calif. $479,300 0.50% -7.80% -31.90% 22.20%
Seattle, Wash. $262,400 0.30% -8% -31.20% 33.90%
St. Louis, Mo. $131,400 0% -8.30% -16.50% 28.50%
Tampa, Fla. $108,600 -0.40% -8.70% -49.90% 56.40%
Phoenix, Ariz. $122,800 -2.40% -10.40% -56.50% 67.60%
Detroit, Mich. $74,200 2.10% -10.40% -53.20% 32.90%
Chicago, Ill. $172,200 0.30% -11.40% -36.70% 42.20%
Atlanta, Ga. $124,200 0.40% -11.50% -32% 53.80%
Sacramento, Calif. $203,100 -2.70% -12.50% -51.20% 49.50%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn. $160,800 -0.60% -12.60% -35% n/a
           
           
*Negative equity refers to the percent of single-family homes with mortgages.    

Source: Zillow