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San Francisco rent price growth forecast tops nation

Jerry Moorman / iStock.com

Rental prices continue to make strong strides, growing month by month and year by year. According to Yardi’s month survey of 119 metros throughout the nation, the U.S. saw a rent increase of 6 percent in May 2016 since May 2014 to another all-time high of $1,204.

The rental market is holding on, increasing about $10 over April, or 0.9 percent. Housing market forecasters are still banking on the transition of millennials turning from renters into homeowners, but the rental market is reaping the benefits in the meantime.

The national average rents include 119 markets tracked by Matrix.

Seattle, Sacramento and Portland posted the biggest gains, all above 11 percent. The three cities were pretty close to one another in gains and about 4 percent higher than the fourth highest city, Pheonix. Houston saw the smallest increase in year-over-year rent growth.

Miami and Las Vegas were the closest cities to neutral in terms of growth, with Miami posting slightly lower figures.

In the 12-month trailing average from April, national rents in all asset classes increased 6.3 percent. Mature markets like Washington D.C. and Richmond have remained toward the bottom end of the totem poll with rental growth, but Houston fell six spots in May. Washington D.C. remained in the same slot.

Miami dropped below the neutral line, falling three spots and putting it below the national average. Miami nearly flip-flopped with Las Vegas, which bumped up three spots.

Occupancy rates are historically high

Yardi Matrix expanded its coverage into occupancy rates throughout the nation on average and on a market basis. In April 2016, the occupancy rate was 96 percent over April 2015’s 95 percent.

The report found that even markets on the low end of the spectrum are doing well by historical standards. In the coming year, occupancy rates are expected to decline.

In San Francisco, the occupancy rate was 96.8 percent as of April 2016, remaining unchanged from the month prior. The forecasted rent growth for the year-end of 2016 is 10.5 percent, which is the highest of all the cities covered.

Job growth is also on the higher end of the spectrum. The year-over-year job growth, based on a six-month moving average, was 3.7 percent in March 2016. Orlando and Austin were the only cities that surpassed that growth.

Rental market growth by asset shows that rental prices in San Francisco are still on the rise, but the rate at which they have grown has dipped in all three asset classes in the last six months.

Email Kimberly Manning