San Francisco's luxury market enters new territory

  • The supply of listings valued at more than $2 million and $1.5 million is the concern for the single-family and condo markets, respectively
  • San Francisco's luxury segment is noticeably impacted by the holidays
  • Historically high inventory heading into a seasonal slowdown indicates the supply of luxury homes in the city is unlikely to decline soon

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The number of luxury home listings in San Francisco reached a new high in October, signaling a shift in the buyer versus seller dynamic.

“Having so many active listings on the market just prior to the winter holiday doldrums is one of the reasons why we designate the luxury home segment as currently having moved into ‘buyer’s market’ territory,” said Paragon Real Estate Group in a recent third quarter report.

San Francisco’s luxury segment is dramatically affected by seasonality and typically goes into deep hibernation from Thanksgiving to mid-January.

gregobagel / iStock.com

gregobagel / iStock.com

As of October, there were roughly 140 single-family home listings priced above $2 million. Paragon estimates the city has 3.5 months supply of $2 million-plus homes. In the up-to-$1.3 million and $1.3 million to $2 million price ranges, the city has roughly 1.5 months of supply apiece.

Entering October, there were roughly 180 luxury condo listings priced at more than $1.5 million. The city has 4.5 months supply of this luxury product compared to 1.5 months supply of condos priced from $1.1 million to $1.5 million.

Reasons cited for the inventory growth include the city’s high prices, which have motivated some buyers to look at options outside the city. Additionally, more new luxury condos are being built in San Francisco, which gives buyers more options and negotiating room.

Despite the general cooling in the market since spring and the significant slowdown in higher end home sales, the overall median sales price of a home bounced back to $1.2 million in October.

“There are still high-end homes selling very quickly for very high prices amid competitive bidding,” the firm stated.

Two neighborhoods where this is still likely occurring are the Marina district and St. Francis Wood. In these two submarkets, median sales prices sit at $3.65 million and $2.7 million, respectively.

Email Erik Pisor.