Forecaster iEmergent sees 2009 bottom in lending

Purchase-mortgage lending volume will bottom out in late 2009, but won't get back in step with long-term trend lines until 2011 or 2012, market research and forecasting firm iEmergent projects.

The Des Moines, Iowa-based company estimates that total purchase-mortgage volume will fall 4 percent in 2009, to 4.95 million loans totalling $837.9 billion. Total mortgage volume, including refinancings, will range from a low of $1.53 trillion to a high of $1.61 trillion, iEmergent said in its Preliminary Mortgage Volume Forecasts for 2009-2013.

Those numbers are more pessimistic than forecasts by Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Fannie Mae, in its Economic and Mortgage Market Forecast for August, projects $900 billion in purchase loans and $1.68 trillion in total mortgage originations in 2009. That's a 12.5 percent decline from an estimated $1.92 trillion in total mortgage lending in 2008. Fannie Mae ses total home sales rising by 4.4 percent next year, to 5.64 million.

The Mortgage Bankers Association, in an Aug. 12 forecast, projected $942 billion in purchase loans and $1.65 trillion in total mortgage originations in 2009, based on 5.59 million sales of new and existing homes.

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