Report: Housing recovery possible in 2010
Real estate brief
By Inman News, Monday, October 6, 2008.Until the excess inventory of 950,000 single-family homes and condos sitting vacant in the United States has been depleted, no significant housing upturn is likely until 2010 at the earliest, according to a housing market analysis.
In its latest issue of Research Notes, the National Multi Housing Council estimated there are approximately 825,000 excess vacant single-family homes and 125,000 excess vacant condos beyond normal vacancy levels in the United States. Add to that some 2 million in excess houses and condos that are occupied and on the market, and the housing market faces incredibly rough times over at least the next 14 months.
To put these figures in perspective, the current excess inventory of 825,000 vacant single-family homes is actually greater than an average year of production in the 1990s, which was 725,000 units per year. The excess inventory will continue to push prices lower, according to NMHC.
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Submitted by John Allen - Sarasota Florida Realtor on October 6, 2008 - 12:51pm.
The future of the housing market depends directly on the recovery of the US economy. We have a ways to go. I think 2010 may even be a little aggressive.
John Allen
Sarsota real estate
Submitted by Mott Marvin Kornicki on October 6, 2008 - 1:05pm.
Recovery is possible even before 2010. I have little faith in the stats that are being thrown around lately.
What about the homes and condominiums that have not yet been placed on the market?
Another issue is the possibility of increased inventory due to future foreclosures...
Indeed this market will recover.
Mott Marvin Kornicki, Broker
www.WaterwayRealty.com
305.935.3533 Main Line
Submitted by Vito Boscaino www.ServingColumbus.com on October 7, 2008 - 10:58am.
What this inadequate analysis doesn't reflect is that beyond the existing inventory of currently empty homes and condominiums, and the currently occupied inventory of over 2 million homes that are for sale, there are two significant additional supply components which will only further extend the downward cycle: 1) the pending pre-foreclosure and foreclosure properties that have not yet been vacated and listed (some of which are represented in the current owner occupied inventory that is for sale; and 2) the large number of owner occupied properties where the owners have the desire to sell, but are trying to wait or time the market, so as to put the home on the market when they feel that market dynamics have improved, which means as soon as the market projects some positive dynamics, inventory levels will swell again.
Plus - factor in the psychological damage being inflicted on potential buyers between ever depreciating property values and the financial market turmoil, with the potential tsunami of a recession/depression looming on the horizon.
On a national level, it is my estimation that we will not see the bottom to the current real estate trends for a good two to three years. Even then, there will be no sharp upturn in the market dynamics.
The changes we are seeing in housing trends are not temporary, they are in fact structural, long-term, and there will be no quick solutions.
The real estate world order has fundamentally changed.