Truth in real estate
Inman Community brief
By Inman News, Tuesday, October 7, 2008.Editor's note: The following is a reader comment on the Sept. 30 Inman News column, "Sucking on a real estate 'binky.'"
"... While no one has a crystal ball, as agents we all have access to valuable data. And intelligent interpretation of this data leads to truth about local markets. Truth is a process of discovery. I have found that sharing market data on my blog with anyone who cares to read it has created a conversation about the market (and) a collective intelligence, which leads to greater understanding for anyone who reads. Though I may not have fully foreseen the enormity of the mess we're in, there were some on my blog who did, and they've been talking about it for two years, which means recent events haven't been entirely shocking to my audience as a result.
"People need to know the truth about current market conditions so that they can make intelligent choices. Our industry needs to drop the spin and explore the truth, no matter how difficult that may be." --Diane Cohn
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Submitted by Norm Fisher on October 7, 2008 - 4:33pm.
I think Diane is one smart real estate agent and I expect that she enjoys the confidence of buyers and sellers in her market.
Coincidentally, this comment appeared on my blog today following the release of an industry report, and in response to what was perceived as Realtor spin.
Realtor's comment: "The people who decide to sit on their hands and not buy now are going to be sorry six months from now."
Consumer's comment: "I am certainly no expert on the market, however as I'm looking to get in the market in the next year in Regina I've followed it closely enough, and personally when I read his comments the emotion that would best describe my reaction was anger. Why is it that a realtor would resort to such blatant fear mongering? Maybe studies have been done which find that this is an effective strategy to drum up business in a slow down, however I know it does exactly the opposite with me and with several friends I've spoke to.
I wanted to post this because I read your comments about Saskatoon and noted how much more balanced and conservative they appeared and I thought that you should know that your approach is one that is appreciated. Unfortunately I cannot say the same for your colleague in Regina."
Submitted by Steve Simon on October 8, 2008 - 3:43am.
Passing a real estate sale associate's exam does not usually qualify one to assess overall market condition and then make absolute predictions as to the direction that prices will take six months, or a year into the future!
Most sales agents have not come into the business with broad based business and Government back ground. Anyone that is using their agent's opinion as to what the market is going to do in the near future is just plain crazy.
Common sense would tell someone that a commission based worker (99.9% of agents don't earn unless they sell) will be prone to say what they think will promote action in the market. It is human nature. An agent with ethics tempers their remarks, an agent without ethics will say anything!
I have been a licensed real estate instructor for over twenty years, a mortgage broker instructor, taught the securities classes, and been a two term county commissioner of the 11th largest county in Florida; no one couldhave guessed the enormity of this mess... I have been warning for two and a half years that the run-up could not continue and that the lenders were using loan structures with insane loan to value ratios and that when the speculation stops the fall would be damaging. Given that I would not have said "World Wide Free World Financial Meltdown" is here, but it just may be...
Energy cost increases without need or merit. Real estate speculation with the aid of improper lending practice (and worse fraudulent appraisal), a rewrite of secondary market rules in 1995 by then Sec. Rubin (Clinton's man) and very poor enforcement & oversight have brought us to where we are today.
I am optimistic that we will survive and prosper again, but that time will not be very soon.
A simple answer to a very complex problem is usually incomplete...
Steve Simon is the lead instructor at the Steve Simon School of Real Estate www.stevesimon.us
Submitted by Phillip Jones on October 8, 2008 - 4:43am.
Excellent comments Steve - I agree.
Regards,
Phillip Jones, Broker/Owner
Your Choice Real Estate, Inc.
151-18 College Drive
Orange Park, FL 32065
Phone: (904) 298-2679 Ext 501
Toll Free: (888) 490-0671 Ext 501
Fax: (866) 923-9990
Website: www.ycre.net
The only time success comes before work is in the dictionary
Submitted by Rob Nelson on October 8, 2008 - 6:33am.
Steve good commentary and yes, no realtor can predict the future and "overall market condition". The same can be said though of economists who can often be quite wrong in their predictions but somehow manage to talk their way out of any that have failed to transpire. In the meantime all too often they are relied upon to be our crystal ball gazers. Simply put, nobody has a crystal ball and the confidence in western economies can most often be boiled down to the micro level ie the space between one's ears. Let's all be realists yes, but if we continue to dwell on the negative that's exactly where we remain.
Rob Nelson
www.RobNelson.com
Bosley Real Estate Ltd.
276 Merton Street
Toronto, Ontario
Submitted by Gina Gardner on October 8, 2008 - 9:35am.
Honestly, I don't think it's a good idea to expect reliable interpretations of market and economic data from a salesperson who gains only if I choose to tranmsact real estate. Not that agents are necessarily blowing smoke (I know many Realtors who really did believe that two years ago was "a great time to buy" and did so to their own detriment). I just know that good salespeople believe in their product and aren't objective enough to give advice. I've also never seen a real estate column or Web site where the author said that the market was overheated and that investors should stay out for a while. Never.
Submitted by Teresa Boardman on October 14, 2008 - 12:48pm.
I provide a lot of data on my blog with little commentary. I like the idea of giving people information and I fear that much of what I could say about it would be read as "spin" from the real estate industry. I sometimes make observations, like 'up or down from last month or last year' and then provide a link that supports my observation. I mostly can't make predictions. The value of my data posts is that they have real numbers and I try to make them as easy to understand as possible.