Home-price index falls at record rate
S&P/Case-Shiller reports 16.6% drop in Q3
By Inman News, Tuesday, November 25, 2008.Editor's note: Robert J. Shiller (see Inman News profile), a co-creator of the price-trend research that laid the foundation for the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price indices, will discuss how to mend the housing market during a keynote address at the Inman News Real Estate Connect conference in New York City on Jan. 7. The conference runs from Jan. 7-9 and will also feature talks by Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, Craigslist.org's Craig Newmark, and Realogy Corp. CEO Alex Perriello, among other industry notables.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index dropped a record 16.6 percent in the third quarter compared to the same quarter last year.
And a separate monthly price index for 20 U.S. metro areas also fell a record 17.4 percent year-over-year in September.
The monthly index is based on repeat sales of resale single-family homes over time, and the quarterly national index is a composite of single-family home-price indices for the nation's nine Census divisions.
The indices do not gather sale prices associated with new construction, condos, co-ops/apartments, multifamily dwellings and other properties that cannot be identified as single-family homes.
All 20 metro areas in the monthly report experienced year-over-year price and month-to-month price declines in September.
In a separate announcement this week, the National Association of Realtors reported that the median price of U.S. resale homes dropped 11.3 percent year-over-year in October -- the largest ever drop since the National Association of Realtors began tracking the statistic in 1968 (see Inman News).
Phoenix suffered the largest year-over-year price drop in the S&P/Case-Shiller monthly index, falling 31.9 percent; followed by Las Vegas, down 31.3 percent; and San Francisco, down 29.5 percent.
Dallas had the slightest year-over-year price drop in September, at 2.7 percent; Charlotte was down 3.5 percent; and Denver was down 5.4 percent.
San Francisco had the largest August-to-September price drop, at 3.9 percent, while Cleveland had the slightest month-to-month drop, at 0.6 percent.
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-metro-area price index
| Price change |
Metro area | Sept. '07-Sept. '08 |
Phoenix | -31.90% |
Las Vegas | -31.30% |
San Francisco | -29.50% |
Miami | -28.40% |
Los Angeles | -27.60% |
San Diego | -26.30% |
Detroit | -18.60% |
Tampa | -18.50% |
Washington | -17.20% |
Minneapolis | -14.40% |
Chicago | -10.10% |
Seattle | -9.80% |
Atlanta | -9.50% |
Portland | -8.60% |
New York | -7.30% |
Cleveland | -6.40% |
Boston | -5.70% |
Denver | -5.40% |
Charlotte | -3.50% |
Dallas | -2.70% |
Composite-20 | -17.40% |
|
|
| Price change |
| Q3 '07-Q3 '08 |
U.S. | -16.60% |
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller.
Hear economist and author Robert J. Shiller speak at Real Estate Connect in New York City, Jan. 7-9, 2008. The conference program and registration are available online via the Connect Web site.
***
What's your opinion? Leave your comments below or send a letter to the editor.
All rights reserved. This content may not be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever, in part or in whole, without written permission of Inman News. Use of this content without permission is a violation of federal copyright law.
You must login or register to post a comment.
Submitted by Gregory Schreiber on November 25, 2008 - 4:29pm.
There is a particularly strong correlation between those states above and the ones which voted for Obama.
Submitted by Bill Fooks on November 26, 2008 - 3:58am.
Bill Fooks
TFT realty Marketing Service
Warwick, RI
Prices are always income compliant. When lenders forget this we see a big runup of prices. Now prices are coming more in line with wages, in these areas. We will see the market reach stability when the median income can afford the average payment of PITI.