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Real estate’s November report card

Guest perspective: New-home sales strong despite seasonality

Learn the New Luxury Playbook at Luxury Connect | October 18-19 at the Beverly Hills Hotel

The housing market has been so hot for so long that it is easy to forget that new-home sales is a seasonal business. While the peak sales month occurs in March, there is usually a 28 percent decline in sales from August through December. The seasonally adjusted figures from the Census Bureau take this seasonality into account. The housing market is going through its usual seasonal slowdown this year. New-home builders, which have migrated more to the higher-priced segments of the market, are experiencing more than a 28 percent decline, as higher-priced home sales typically slow down more because their buyers have children in school. Our grading system of the economy and the housing market is a "bell curve" model, with statistics at an all-time high receiving an "A," statistics near the long-term average receiving a "C," and the worst times ever receiving an "F." In this grading system, it is OK to be a "C" student. Here is our current report card: Economic Growth: C The ...