Fed’s rate hikes may burst real estate bubble

Mortgage rates have improved ever so slightly, to 6.25 percent with the lowest fees, but not because of any change in the economy, just the conclusion of a weeklong borrowing binge by the Treasury. I think that mortgage-rate risk is still tilted upward, unless and until news of a significant economic slowdown, especially in the labor market. The next definitive data on jobs are three weeks away, but other events -- Fed and market -- are adding to tension and setting up bonds and mortgages for a significant move. In the short term, the biggest market-mover will be Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's first official remarks next Wednesday in testimony to Congress. The Fed will not meet again until March 28, but Bernanke's appearance will tend to addle the markets. First, of course, will be the impact of any hint about inflation risk and the Fed's interest-rate intentions. Second will be general unease in the markets, internal fidgeting at the thought, "Does this guy know what he's doing?...