Industry News

Economist expects U.S. home prices to fall 10%

Forecast says no recession, but 'certainly close'

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Turbulence. That is the one-word title for the latest U.S. economic forecast by David Shulman of the Anderson Forecast at the University of California, Los Angeles. "This is not a recession, but it is certainly close," Shulman writes in the forecast, released today. "If our forecast is close to the mark, the period from the second quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2008 will mark a historically anomalous long period of below-trend growth." Shulman's previous quarterly forecast report, released in April, was titled, "A Long Runway for the Soft Landing." His latest forecast anticipates a 10 percent peak-to-trough price decline in U.S. housing prices "that will likely extend into 2009." In an interview this week with Inman News, Shulman said the current real estate downturn is "completely different from anything we've previously experienced," adding that the only comparable period may be the Great Depression. "We've never had the run-up in house prices we saw between 2000 and 2005," ...