Industry News

UCLA forecast: Economy may steer clear of recession

Housing-market recovery still several years away

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While several economists maintained in the early descent from the real estate boom that a "soft landing" was in store, the latest Anderson Forecast predicts a very bumpy ride for the housing market and a near-miss with a recession. David Shulman, senior economist for the quarterly University of California, Los Angeles, forecast, stated in his outlook that the nation's economic performance is expected to be "almost as close as you can get to avoid the technical definition of a recession." That means low growth in the nation's gross domestic product -- about 1 percent in fourth-quarter 2007 and in first-quarter 2008, according to Shulman's "A Near Recession Experience" report. There are dangers, too, that things could get worse. "When the economy slows to a 1 percent pace, it runs the risk of falling into an actual recession just as when an airplane's velocity dips down to its 'stall speed' and falls out of the sky," Shulman states in the report. "In that sense our forecast can be viewed...