Industry NewsMortgage

Is the Fed out of options?

Future-Proof: Navigate Threats, Seize Opportunities at ICNY 2018 | Jan 22-26 at the Marriott Marquis, Times Square, New York

A big run to Treasurys has pulled mortgage rates down to 6.25 percent, but the spread to the 3.58 percent 10-year T-note remains immense. Three forces have knocked all Treasury yields down a quarter percent in four days. First, money scrambling to get out of commodities and the euro has to buy some dollar-denominated security, and the first preference of the foreign investor is Treasurys. Second, the oil-commodity reversal and onset of global recession will obviously break inflation -- different places, different timing, but inflation as fear No. 1 has been replaced by asset deflation. Which leads to force three: plain, panicked flight to quality. The economic data were tertiary to the market moves themselves, above, and to a pair of speeches. Today's double-the-forecast loss of 142,000 jobs in August (including revisions), yesterday's news of weekly unemployment claims at a sustained 445,000, sub-breakeven purchasing managers' surveys, another 15.5 percent clunk in car s...