The National Association of Realtors today reports that the median price of single-family resale homes sank 9.3 percent in 2008 and is projected to dip another 2.4 in 2009 before rising 4.6 percent in 2010.

Sales of resale homes fell 13.1 percent in 2008, following a 12.8 percent drop in 2007, and are projected to rise 4.1 percent this year and another 6.3 percent in 2010, the Realtor trade group also reported.

The report follows a series of record lows reported last month for several housing-market metrics (see Inman News).

Single-family new-home prices fell an estimated 7 percent in 2008 and are projected to fall another 1.7 percent in 2009 before rising 4.8 percent in 2010.

New-home sales dove 37.8 percent in 2008 following a 26.3 percent decline in 2007, and are projected to drop 30.4 percent in 2009 before rising a whopping 44.9 percent in 2010, according to the latest monthly NAR forecast.

After dropping from 103 in 2007 to 58 in 2008, NAR projects that consumer confidence will fall to 44 this year before kicking up to 55 in 2010.

Real U.S. gross domestic product, which grew 2 percent in 2007, slowed to 1.3 percent growth in 2008 and is expected to decline 1.9 percent in 2009, recovering to 1.8 percent growth in 2010.

NAR anticipates that the U.S. unemployment rate, which stood at 5.8 percent for 2008, will hit 8.1 percent this year and 8.4 percent in 2010.

Also today, NAR released its monthly Pending Home Sales Index report for December 2008. The index — based on home-sale contracts signed in December — rose 6.3 percent compared to November and 2.1 percent compared to December 2007.

Regionally, the index rose 13 percent in the South and 12.8 percent in the Midwest while dropping 3.7 percent in the West and 1.7 percent in the Northeast in December compared to November.

And the index was up 17.5 percent in the West and 1.6 percent in the South while falling 14.5 percent in the Northeast and 1.2 percent in the Midwest year-over-year in December, NAR reported.

Also today, the California Building Industry Association trade group projected that housing production in California — which hit a record low in 2008 — will fall to a new record low this year.

The association is forecasting the production of 63,400 residential units this year, a 3 percent decline from the 65,380 units produced in 2008. That compares to previous cyclical lows of 84,656 units in 1993 and 85,656 in 1982.

The association expects that single-family new-home production will decline 9 percent in 2009, to 30,000 units.


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