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UCLA forecast: ‘Tepid recovery’ in 2010

U.S. unemployment to top 9% through 2011

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This recession will be the longest and most damaging of the postwar era, according to the latest forecast report from University of California, Los Angeles, spanning an estimated 19-24 months and building to a U.S. unemployment rate of 10.5 percent in mid-2010. In "The Global Slump," one of the economic reports featured in the UCLA Anderson Forecast, senior economist David Shulman states that most of the "contractionary forces" on the economy "will have been spent" by the close of 2009. But the employment recovery from this recession "will be long and arduous," he notes, with the unemployment rate sticking above 9 percent through the end of 2011. The housing market "can't get much lower," the report states, and calls for a "tepid recovery" in 2010. The loss of wealth has been extensive: Consumers have already lost an estimated $5.5 trillion in home values and $9 trillion in stock values. "With economic output f...